As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms on the horizon, the tension between political ideologies is heating up, and many sectors are bracing for potential shifts in regulations and policies. However, for the cryptocurrency community, particularly Bitcoin enthusiasts, the election’s outcome may not play as pivotal a role in the asset’s trajectory as some might think. In fact, many crypto investors and analysts are increasingly confident that Bitcoin will thrive in the long term, potentially reaching six figures, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office come January.
This belief stems from Bitcoin’s inherent detachment from traditional political mechanisms, and its value being driven more by macroeconomic factors than by the specific policies of individual administrations. A closer examination reveals why the U.S. political landscape may have less impact on Bitcoin’s future than some might assume and how the asset is poised to succeed based on deeper fiscal and global trends.
The Historical Context: Bitcoin’s Independence from Politics
To understand why Bitcoin may remain resilient regardless of the upcoming election results, it’s essential to look at its origins and its journey over the past decade. Bitcoin was created in 2009 by an anonymous figure (or group) known as Satoshi Nakamoto, following the global financial crisis of 2008. The cryptocurrency was designed as an alternative to the centralized banking system, built on the principles of decentralization, transparency, and autonomy. Its very inception was a response to the flaws of traditional monetary systems, not necessarily tied to any specific political ideology.
Over the years, Bitcoin has weathered various political and economic storms. Its price has surged and plummeted in response to factors like regulatory crackdowns, technological advancements, and changes in global monetary policies. However, its value hasn’t been significantly affected by the political orientation of specific governments, but rather by larger economic trends such as inflation, quantitative easing, and global financial instability.
This detachment from politics is further emphasized by Bitcoin’s decentralized nature. With no central authority controlling it, Bitcoin exists outside the purview of any one nation-state or political party. Its appeal lies in its universality, offering an alternative to citizens around the world, especially those in countries with unstable fiat currencies or restrictive monetary policies.
The Pro-Crypto Sentiment Under Trump
Much of the recent discourse surrounding Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in the run-up to the 2024 election stems from former President Donald Trump’s surprising pro-crypto stance during the summer of 2024. Known for his anti-establishment rhetoric and disdain for traditional financial institutions, Trump’s overtures to the cryptocurrency community were welcomed by many investors. He hinted at favorable policies, suggesting that Bitcoin and other digital currencies might see fewer regulatory hurdles if he were re-elected.
However, Trump’s newfound enthusiasm for Bitcoin represents a significant shift from his previous stance. In 2019, he famously tweeted that he was “not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies” and argued that their volatility and lack of intrinsic value made them a threat to the traditional financial system. This reversal may have been influenced by Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption, its increasing recognition as a store of value akin to gold, and the realization that the cryptocurrency industry has become too large to ignore.
Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric certainly buoyed investor confidence, and there was a temporary surge of optimism in the market. However, as the dust settled, many investors recognized that Bitcoin’s long-term success would not hinge solely on whether Trump or another pro-crypto candidate won the election. As James Davies of Crypto Valley Exchange points out, “Crypto startups may be more challenged, but the industry will continue to fight its way forward and thrive.”
Kamala Harris and Regulatory Fears
On the other side of the political spectrum, fears have emerged within certain crypto circles that a potential Kamala Harris presidency could stifle Bitcoin’s growth through increased regulation. Harris, who has championed stricter financial oversight in the past, is seen by some as a threat to the crypto industry, especially with her administration potentially focusing on consumer protections, tax regulations, and anti-money laundering efforts within the crypto space.
However, these concerns may be overblown. While Harris may advocate for more stringent regulations, it is unlikely that her administration would take any steps that would severely impact the long-term viability of Bitcoin. As Davies emphasizes, “This is about opportunities and regulation for U.S.-based users, not the price of a global commodity.” The global nature of Bitcoin means that its value is not tied solely to U.S. regulations or policies. Even if U.S.-based users face tighter restrictions, Bitcoin’s decentralized structure allows it to thrive in other parts of the world.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has become too institutionalized to be derailed by any single administration. The introduction of U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the growing interest from hedge funds and institutional investors, and its recognition as a legitimate asset class have helped cement Bitcoin’s place in the global financial system. Regardless of the regulatory hurdles that may arise, Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and a decentralized store of value will continue to drive demand.
The Broader Economic Context: Monetary Policy and Inflation
While political outcomes may have a limited effect on Bitcoin’s trajectory, broader macroeconomic trends will play a much more significant role in shaping its future. One of the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s value is its status as a hedge against inflation. In times of economic uncertainty, investors flock to assets that are not tied to fiat currencies, which can be devalued by central banks through policies like quantitative easing and interest rate cuts.
Over the past few years, Bitcoin has gained recognition as “digital gold,” a safe haven for investors looking to protect their wealth from the depreciating value of traditional currencies. As countries around the world, including the U.S., continue to grapple with inflationary pressures, Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation-resistant asset will only grow. This is especially relevant as the Federal Reserve and other central banks pursue aggressive monetary policies that could lead to further currency devaluation.
The fiscal and monetary policies of governments and central banks—whether it’s increasing the money supply, lowering interest rates, or implementing stimulus packages—are far more likely to influence Bitcoin’s price than the outcome of a specific election. As Steven Lubka of Swan Bitcoin explains, “Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States. Neither candidate changes that.”
Long-Term Implications: Bitcoin’s Path to Six Figures
As Bitcoin continues its march towards six figures, its success will depend on factors that transcend U.S. politics. Global adoption, institutional interest, inflationary pressures, and technological advancements within the crypto space are all likely to play a much larger role in driving Bitcoin’s value.
One significant development that could propel Bitcoin towards six figures is the increasing institutionalization of the asset. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and other countries has opened the door for traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the cryptocurrency. This has significantly boosted liquidity and legitimized Bitcoin in the eyes of many skeptical investors.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s fixed supply—only 21 million coins will ever be mined—makes it inherently deflationary. As demand increases, the limited supply of Bitcoin will naturally push its price higher. This supply-demand dynamic, combined with the asset’s growing recognition as a store of value, suggests that six-figure Bitcoin is not a matter of if, but when.
Conclusion: Beyond Partisanship
While the political landscape in the U.S. may shift dramatically depending on the outcome of the 2024 election, the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin is likely to remain unaffected. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, its appeal as a hedge against inflation, and its growing institutional adoption make it resilient in the face of political uncertainty. As both Lubka and Davies argue, Bitcoin’s future is rooted in global macroeconomic trends, not partisan politics. Whether the next U.S. president is pro-crypto or pro-regulation, Bitcoin’s path to six figures seems almost inevitable, driven by the very forces it was created to withstand.